NGFS's climate models

Climate change has become one of this decade's most pressing issues. Since the industrial revolution, greenhouse gas emissions have caused a global warming of 1.2°C, which is unprecedented in the past 12,000 years and is already affecting living conditions in many parts of the world. Climate change will have a significant impact on ecosystems, health, infrastructure, and the economy if left unchecked. In response, many nations have established net-zero emission goals and strategies to end their contribution to global warming. This transition will require substantial investments across all economic sectors, as well as the creation of new technologies and jobs, in order to reduce energy consumption, eliminate emissions, and restore land. This presents unique challenges and opportunities, particularly in regions with pressing development requirements. The next decade will be a crucial transitional period, and while the precise outcome is uncertain, it is likely that some combination of these trends will occur.

Who are the NGFS?

The Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) is an international forum of central banks and supervisors focused on promoting the greening of the financial system.

The goal of the NGFS is to: Share best practices and equip central banks and supervisors with the tools to identify, assess and mitigate climate risks in the financial system.

The NGFS has collaborated with a group of expert climate scientists and economists to develop an exhaustive set of hypothetical scenarios. These scenarios provide a unified, up-to-date point of reference for the potential evolution of both physical risks resulting from climate change and transition risks resulting from climate policy and technological trends. These scenarios provide a comprehensive look at the potential future of climate change, ranging from orderly scenarios with low physical and transition risks to disorderly scenarios with higher transition risks, and from hothouse world scenarios with critical temperature thresholds exceeded to too late scenarios with higher physical risks.

Six distinct scenarios to evaluate transitional and physical hazards

NGFS scenario framework

Assumptions of scenarios

Orderly

Net Zero 2050

Net Zero 2050 is an ambitious scenario that, through stringent climate policies and innovation, limits global warming to 1.5 °C and achieves net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. Some nations, including the United States, the European Union, and Japan, reach net zero for all greenhouse gases at this time.

Below 2 Celsius

Below 2 °C gradually increases the stringency of climate policies, resulting in a 67 percent chance of containing global warming to below 2 °C.

Disorderly

Divergent Net Zero

Divergent Net Zero achieves net-zero emissions by 2050, but at a higher cost due to the introduction of divergent policies across sectors and a faster phase-out of fossil fuels.

Delayed Transition

Delayed Transition assumes global annual emissions do not decrease until 2030. Then, robust policies are required to limit global warming to below 2 °C. Few negative emissions exist.

Hot house world

Nationally Determined Contributions

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) include all pledged policies, regardless of whether or not they have been implemented.

Current Policies

Current Policies presupposes that only currently implemented policies are maintained, resulting in significant physical risks.